ABSTRACT
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease can create situational awareness and inform planning for outbreak response. Here, we report on multi-model forecasts of Covid-19 in the UK that were generated at regular intervals starting at the end of March 2020, in order to monitor expected healthcare utilisation and population impacts in real time. Methods: We evaluated the performance of individual model forecasts generated between 24 March and 14 July 2020, using a variety of metrics including the weighted interval score as well as metrics that assess the calibration, sharpness, bias and absolute error of forecasts separately. We further combined the predictions from individual models to ensemble forecasts using a simple mean as well as a quantile regression average that aimed to maximise performance. We further compared model performance to a null model of no change. Results: In most cases, individual models performed better than the null model, and ensembles models were well calibrated and performed comparatively to the best individual models. The quantile regression average did not noticeably outperform the mean ensemble. Conclusions: Ensembles of multi-model forecasts can inform the policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic by assessing future resource needs and expected population impact of morbidity and mortality.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable DiseasesABSTRACT
ObjectivesTo identify the level of Mental Health Status of Adolescents During the COVID-19 Pandemic among the Bangladeshi Graduate Student at Dhaka MethodA cross-sectional survey was conducted with 330 students from different public and Private Universities in Dhaka, Bangladesh between April 01, 2020 and July 31, 2020 amid the COVID-19 lockdown period in Bangladesh. A standard, self-administered online questionnaire consisting of questions on socio-demographic variables, mental health status, as well as stress management sent to the respondents through social networking platforms. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way ANOVA and correlation tests. ResultsThe mean score of mental health status was 2.08 based on four points scale. They felt problem in decision making (3.04), in doing the things well (2.92), in enjoying normal day to day life (2.88), in playing a useful part in life (2.85), in doing their task (2.75), living in perfectly well and in good health (2.70). The respondents also developed a suicidal tendency (2.55), felt nervous in strung-up (2.24), took longer time to do things (2.14), felt tightness and pressure in head (2.12), and found themselves pressurized by various stuff (2.05). This study also found a significant positive relationship between mental health status and age, living with parents, and parents attitude. Finally, this study revealed that the respondents managed their stress by chatting with their friends, parents and siblings, and by sleeping. ConclusionMental health status of adolescents was found moderate in this study. This study suggests further large-scale study including different socio-economic settings in order to figure out the real scenario of adolescents mental health status of the country during the pandemic.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has exhibited distinct waves, the first beginning in March 2020, the second beginning in early June, and additional waves currently emerging. Paradoxically, almost no county has exhibited this multi-wave pattern. We aim to answer three research questions: (1) How many distinct clusters of counties exhibit similar COVID-19 patterns in the time-series of daily confirmed cases?; (2) What is the geographic distribution of the counties within each cluster? and (3) Are county-level demographic, socioeconomic and political variables associated with the COVID-19 case patterns? We analyzed data from counties in the U.S. from March 1 to October 24, 2020. Time series clustering identified clusters in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. An explanatory model was used to identify demographic, socioeconomic and political variables associated the cluster patterns. Four patterns were identified from the timing of the outbreaks including counties experiencing a spring, an early summer, a late summer, and a fall outbreak. Several county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and political variables showed significant associations with the identified clusters. The timing of the outbreak is related both to the geographic location within the U.S. and several variables including age, poverty distribution, and political association. These results show that the reported pattern of cases in the U.S. is observed through aggregation of the COVID-19 cases, suggesting that local trends may be more informative. The timing of the outbreak varies by county, and is associated with important demographic, socioeconomic and geographic factors.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, wide-scale social distancing including local and national lockdowns. In this technical update, we extend a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model that infers the impact of these interventions and estimates the number of infections over time. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number - a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from temporal data on observed to estimate the number of infections and rate of transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for a probabilistic time lag between infection and death. In this update we extend our original model [Flaxman, Mishra, Gandy et al 2020, Report #13, Imperial College London] to include (a) population saturation effects, (b) prior uncertainty on the infection fatality ratio, (c) a more balanced prior on intervention effects and (d) partial pooling of the lockdown intervention covariate. We also (e) included another 3 countries (Greece, the Netherlands and Portugal). The model code is available at https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model/ We are now reporting the results of our updated model online at https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/ We estimated parameters jointly for all M=14 countries in a single hierarchical model. Inference is performed in the probabilistic programming language Stan using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler.